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The Ground Zero of Mortgage Foreclosures

Here’s an unpleasant thought: According the international news agency Agence France Press, Stockton, California, has become “the ground zero” of mortgage foreclosures.

Per an AFP article published in September, 2007, 1 in 27 Stockton homes are in foreclosure. According to the article, which bases its information on data from an organization called RealtyTrac, the worst-hit neighborhood is the Weston Ranch subdivision, where hundreds of homes are in foreclosure already.

Because I am so interested in demography, any time such an important news story gets linked to an individual neighborhood, I can’t help but investigate. Because home foreclosure would seem to be so heavily driven by socio-economic data, I decided to look into the profile of Weston Ranch.

Here’s what I learned:

First off, back in 1990, according to the U.S. Census, there were only a total of 71 housing units in the Weston Ranch area. By 2000, according to the U.S. Census, that number had increased to 2,266. In 2006, according to MapInfo’s own estimates, the total number of housing units had increased to 4,159.

That is a growth rate of over 5,000%. In New York, where population is generally decreasing, that kind of growth sounds unbelievable. I can’t even picture it.

The median, family income for Weston Ranch is about $78,000, according to MapInfo estimates. That is not poor. It is also far from grossly rich. Also, home values, according to the Census, were only about $175,000 in 2000. For California, that strikes me as very modest. This is a neighborhood of normal people.

Taking that information, I used MapInfo demographic data that I have stored within a business intelligence data mart on my local server and did some queries. First I grabbed the universe of all U.S. Census Block Groups for the nation — about 200,000. Then I applied a filter so that I was looking at only Block Groups where the number of housing units changed by over 1,000% from 1990 to 2000.  They allowed me to create a subset of about 330 Block Groups.

I applied another filter to check for Block Groups where, according to MapInfo, the projected population change from 2000 to 2011 was expected to be over 120%.

Finally, I looked at home value. I decided to search only for Block Groups where the home value in 2000 was, according to Census statistics, over $150,000, but under $220,000.

This got me a list of 19 Block Groups that I consider similar to Stockton’s ‘ground zero.’

Of the 19, 18 are in the Sunbelt – one in Florida and 17 in the western part of the country. The 19th is near Chicago.

According to data from MapInfo PSYTE Advantage, all of the neighborhoods are suburban, high growth areas, although they are evenly split in terms of density: one-third, high density; one-third, low density, etc. They also fall, for the most part, into 3 particular PSYTE Advantage clusters:

Western Sprawl
Sierra Snuggle
Suburban Mélange

Besides being high-growth, mostly Western suburbs, what do these groups have in common? Married couple households, age 25-49, kids under 18, income between $65,000 and $85,000.

Sounds like the American dream.
Now I wouldn’t hit the panic button just yet if your neighborhood comes up on this list. This is back-of-the-napkin analysis. But for reference, the neighborhoods I came up with are:

77382 Spring, Texas
60543 Oswego, Illinois
33913 Fort Myers, Florida
95206 Stockton, California
85308 Glendale, Arizona
85374 Surprise, Arizona
85382 Peoria, Arizona
85248 Chandler, Arizona
89134 Las Vegas, Nevada
89128 Las Vegas, Nevada
89131 Las Vegas, Nevada
89031 North Las Vegas, Nevada
89012 Henderson, Nevada
89124 Las Vegas, Nevada
89148 Las Vegas, Nevada

By the way, another good article on the subject, one from The Associated Press, can be found here:

 http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=3697957

 

 

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Business Intelligence Network

The Business Intelligence Network is a great, on-line resource for news and information regarding Business Intelligence.

Recently they interviewed Jon Winslow, one of our blog authors, regarding the relevance of location with regard to Business Intelligence.

The interview is available as a podcast.

http://www.b-eye-network.com/spotlights/player/?spot=mapinfo_0707

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Back to School!

September is just around the corner! You know what that means. Back to school!

If you are a parent, like me, that’s a good news, bad news situation. Believe me, I am very happy to see my 3 kids boarding the bus. We’ve had a great summer, but its time to get them out of the house. So back-to-school time is a good thing.

The bad news is clothing. It already feels like someone is tugging at my wallet. All the kids need new clothes. Nothing fits. And everything is so expensive!

So feeling sorry for myself, I decided to use Pitney Bowes MapInfo’s demographic data to find out who’s spending the most on children’s clothing, and where those people come from. I keep a large set of MapInfo demographic products stored in a database on my server, and I access the data using BI tool that is integrated with MapInfo. That means I can whip up a map and report at a moment’s notice. I expected to see my own neighborhood, maybe even my own home, highlighted red and flashing. Instead I was surprised. Here’s what I found.

Top 5 Towns and Cities* / Annual Expenditure per Person on Children’s Apparel

Brookings, OR     $ 444.69
Palm Coast, FL    $ 361.85
Grants Pass, OR  $ 361.25
Payson, AZ         $ 343.73
Prescott, AZ       $ 331.01
* U.S. Census-defined Core Based Statistical Areas

At first glance, this might appear to me sort of a mismatched group. Oregon? Arizona? Florida? What do these places have in common? Wealthy families with young kids? Nope.

Turns out one thing - two depending on how you count.

Grandparents.

All 5 towns rank high for the percentage of the population that falls into two of the Pitney Bowes MapInfo PSYTE Advantage groups: “Active Seniors” and “Here to Stay.” The PSYTE Advantage system seeks to identify neighborhoods in the U.S. and Canada by the characteristics of the population. These free-spending, children’s clothing buyers come from towns that can be characterized by high percentage of people living in the two particular neighborhood types. On average, 66% of the population in these towns falls into these two groups. In Brookings, OR, 77% of the population is in these two groups.

“Active Seniors” and “Here to Stay” are people in neighborhoods where the demographic is clearly skewed to the older generation. “Active Seniors” have a higher than average likelihood of being white, widowed and over 75. “Here to Stay” folks are generally over 50, living in empty-nest, two-person households.

Grandma? Grandpa? If you’re listening: girls size 12 and 9, and boys size 8.

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Hurricane Season

It’s officially Hurricane Season and between now and November, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expects between 13 and 17 named storms, with Andrea and Barry already making appearances along the Gulf of Mexico and Florida shores. With memories of one of the worst hurricane seasons still fresh in the insurance industry’s minds, more and more companies are turning to location intelligence technology to make faster, better business decisions and make sure that they are prepared for the start of what could be another very busy hurricane season. In this podcast series Craig Bedell, director of global insurance, Pitney Bowes MapInfo, talsk about how insurance companies can best prepare themselves for what could be a busy hurricane season.

Listen Now 

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ACORDing We Did Go

The recent ACORD/LOMA Technology Conference in Orlando was the first time for Pitney Bowes MapInfo to share the exhibit hall floor with our sister company Pitney Bowes Group One as well as members of our parent.  It was a great opportunity for the groups to get acquainted as allies.

Just as exciting was the level of activity we experienced at the PBMI booth and throughout the entire session.  Clearly, Location Intelligence and PBMI’s offerings are better understood and appreciated by the Insurance community.   As P&C carriers continue to strive to make better informed underwriting and pricing decisions, they are also focused on more robust portfolio risk analyses and assessment.  That’s probably the key reason that PBMI is seeing such increased interest and activity.  But also, as webservices and SOA begin to resonate and be included in more and more companies IT and OPs blueprints, Envinsa and Envinsa Online Services seem to be catching the audiences attention.  Delivering, as we say, “just enough” location intelligence within existing webservice enhanced workflows has never been more important for operational efficiencies and advancing straight-thru processing especially when LI feeds rules engine powered processes.

ACORD/LOMA proved that the P&C and Life industries are both more carefully looking at customer segmentation, market availability, and market penetration analyses that PBMI offers.  PSYTE and other demographic data offerings were in high demand for demonstration at ACORD.  I found it interesting that several speakers went into detail on these subjects.   George Foulke, MetLife talked about this as did Ben DiSylvester of RE Nolan in their sessions at the conference.

Another exciting aspect of this years conference was our announcements about two new partnerships as well as the formal unveiling our new Risk Data Suite PBMI and WSI Weather announced their partnership the week prior to ACORD at MapWorld and TerrorRisk, a custom set of scored worldwide terrorist POIs, had its debut.  TerrorRisk is a joint offering by PBMI and Exclusive Analysis the leading analyst for global war, political risk and terrorism.

In all, this year’s ACORD/LOMA conference proved to be a highly successful event for PBMI while also an educational and pleasurable event.  Special thanks to our policeman and Indian chief!

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An Ode to OODA + the power of professional networking at MapWorld 2007

So as I sit here at the Seattle airport killing five hours to catch the next available flight back to Albany – my original flight was mysteriously cancelled – I continue to reflect on MapWorld 2007 and all of the conversations, presentations and other interactions I enjoyed with clients, partners, prospects, and other business folks from around the world.  A particular poignant conversation I enjoyed was with Brian Haney during lunch on Tuesday.  It was remarkable not just because we talked about insurance, his keen sense of the importance of LI to his company and other topics that might put many of the non-insurance readers of this blog to sleep but also because of the prophetic analogy he offered that has been resonating in my head ever since.  I’ll share it and attempt to explain why I feel it was so significant.  I’m curious to see by way of your comments if you agree.

Brian, VP and Chief Actuary for James River Insurance Company explained to me the OODA Loop (aka “the Boyd cycle”) which Wikipedia defines this way:

The OODA loop “has become an important concept in both business and military strategy. According to military strategist John Boyd, decision-making occurs in a cycle of observe-orient-decide-act. An entity (either an individual or an organization) that can process this cycle quickly, observing and reacting to unfolding events more rapidly than an opponent, can thereby “get inside” the opponent’s decision cycle and gain a military or business advantage.”  That is, by completing the cycle faster than his opponent, a competitor can change his strategy with such dexterity that his opponent is continually struggling to adjust to what is essentially a moving target.

mapworld-2007.jpg

 

  

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OODA_Loop

OODA is an acronym for Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act. 

When I consider these four activities, individually and collectively, I immediately see the role that Location Intelligence plays in each of these – or said another way, to me these are naturally core principles of the business capability that is referred to as Location Intelligence. 

Observe & Orient – are all about knowing where you are and what’s around you.  Key enablers are accurate address / location (geocoding) and the ability to consider that in context of other data elements.  Decide – all this week at MapWorld we heard speaker after speaker talking about LI’s role in enabling better, more informed and timely decisions.  Act – once a decision has been made, LI plays a key role in applying the outcome to the resulting appropriate action. 

Whether it’s a locating a new store to capture further market share; managing the degree to which an insurance portfolio may be exposed to catastrophic levels of risk and buying the appropriate levels of reinsurance to maximize profit while capping risk; or embarking on a wireless network expansion that better services a burgeoning market – companies that have matured their location intelligence capacities most certainly complete the OODA loop with a higher degree of accuracy than their competitors.

I don’t mean to suggest that LI is all it takes.  But, based upon my experience and those of the vast majority of MapInfo’s clients to whom I have been exposed around the world: I am impressed by the fact that they share attributes of industry leaders that include the other attributes that when enhanced by LI do in fact allow them to do loops around their competition.

Thanks to Brian for taking my brain on an OODA loop.  What are you comments about this “Ode to OODA”?


 

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Our “eventions” mirror our secret wishes

Using a previous definition from this blog that location intelligence  is the extraction of actionable decisions from data using business intelligence mechanisms strengthened by location analysis methods it would seem reasonable to ponder the “levers and knobs” a user manipulates to seek out nuggets of paydirt.

One way of thinking about this is to consider a location intelligence console. There are countless business intelligence consoles and dashboards and some well advanced efforts to inject location based capabilities to some of those consoles. MapInfo’s location intelligence is a component that successfully brings location intelligence to BI consoles.

I think there is a case to be made that pervasive location based analytics also have a place in the business arsenal of the modern company. In a console built with unrestricted location intelligence capabilities, it would be possible to ask intrinsically spatial questions and have the spatial aspects considered as a fundamental part of the analysis.

MapInfo’s Research department has built up such a framework on the web and exposed it for comment. The site is called Envention and the url is http://www.envention.biz You are cordially invited to explore the site and let us know your comments.

Attached here is an extract from the text about the site and below is a screen shot of a terrorism insurance risk assessment under way in the console.

Welcome to Envention

A MapInfo User Learning Experiment

We’re sharing this site hoping that motivated, smart individuals (like you of course) will comment on the things you like and don’t like.

Being a mule (a site that carries mock ups and experiments as a payload), the site could change at any moment and might just go wandering off-line (as mules do).

Envention.biz is an extensive prototype. It might fall over. We hope it won’t but if it does we’d be very grateful if you’d let us know what happened. So we can blame somebody.

You don’t need to install anything to run this. We’d love it if you rushed out and bought gobs of MapInfo software and data and models once you see how good it is, but you don’t need anything from us to run it. Just remember that some of us have kids to feed…

Supporting this site from behind the scenes are full production versions of MapInfo® products including Envinsa® (you can read about it here), SpatialWare® (here), the TargetPro® server (here), Predictive Analytics models (here) and MapInfo Data (here). These won’t fall over….

 

envension.jpg

 

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Broadband and Location Intelligence

From Broadband over Power Line providers to FTTX rollout and EV-DO to WiMAX, the broadband market has faced a dramatic increase in competition (and falling broadband service rates) that has made location intelligence a critical tool for broadband providers who want to compete and succeed.  Providers must decide: where to place infrastructure, where to offer new services, where to locate their best customers, where their competitors are and where to deploy service crews to quickly and effectively maintain their network assets.  For example, the decision of where to introduce new services involves a number of location factors—existing infrastructure, customer demographics, potential for revenue growth and competitive presence. Broadband providers who optimize location intelligence will more effectively capitalize on additional revenue resources.

By adding location as a critical dimension in the decision-making process, communications providers can identify relationships between and among network infrastructure, existing customers, regulatory boundaries and potential customer demographics in both business and consumer areas. In the end, communications providers must rely on location analysis to help them plan, predict and make decisions with greater accuracy. 

Location Intelligence is now a “must have” for carriers of every kind.  The notion of “where” has become a critical factor in a provider’s decision-making.  By adding location as a critical dimension in the decision-making process, wireless providers can compete, save, serve and grow in today’s increasingly competitive marketplace.

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Reflections

Reflections on the 2007 PCI Joint Marketing and Underwriting Seminar

PCI’s Annual Joint Marketing and Underwriting Seminar concluded a few weeks ago in San Antonio.  Attended by well over 200 underwriting, marketing, and other insurance business decision makers, the San Antonio conference again proved this annual session to be a powerful and valuable conference for all who attended. 

It was clear from both the session content and the avid interest on the part of the attendees that two key areas of interest to carriers were: the increasingly complex and competitive marketplace; and market demands specifically related to improved assessment and response to catastrophes (especially in regions of coastal exposure).

References to the Baby Boomer generation surfaced in many of the conversations throughout the conference—whether from the challenges associated with retiring insurance professionals, including agents, or as noted by keynote speaker and futurist, Jim Carroll, the influx of retirees into communities more exposed to hurricane, brushfire, and earthquake risks.

Other sessions focused on operational efficiencies including automating the underwriting process and Jim Lucker of Deloitte spoke in depth about the use of predictive models for taking commercial lines underwriting to a more reliable level.  

Not to be overlooked were the sessions focused on attracting and retaining the “right” business as well as optimizing sales, marketing and distribution management.

Since becoming a “location intelligence” professional, I can’t go anywhere without noticing maps and references to location information.  Throughout the conference I was struck by how often discussions turned to location.  Whether it was Jim Carroll mentioning the wave of retirees headed towards risk prone areas, Jim Lucker talking about understanding the distribution of risks as they relate to exposures, to Brian Quinn from Nationwide who spoke of how his company uses census, economic, and psychodemographic data in spatial analyses to understand market potential and identify the quantity and location of target customers.  As important as location has always been to the insurance industry, it seems that location intelligence has taken on increased importance in recent years. 

Another popular discussion topic at the conference was technology, especially web-services and Service Oriented Architecture.  This was particularly noteworthy as this PCI gathering is primarily a business conference, rather than IT-focus (like the PCI Information Technology Conference).  While there were a handful of carrier CIO’s and other high-level technology officers present, it was the business folks talking technology.

The two key observations I made were that: the insurance business folks have become especially tech savvy; and web services and SOA are increasingly the technical enablers allowing our industry to make the advances in operational efficiencies, enhanced underwriting and pricing, real-time portfolio risk management, CRM and delivery of better claims services.  With these too, location intelligence is able to play a key role, seamlessly integrating into the evolving insurance workflows.

Another reoccurring theme throughout the three days in San Antonio was the topic of data quality and the challenge of harnessing the power of the tremendous stores of data that insurance companies have at their fingertips. “If only we could put it to use” was a common complaint.  The old expression “Garbage In Garbage Out” (GIGO) came to mind.  This one fact has always been the bane of any analysis.  Anyone who has ever talked with me long enough to get beyond simple pleasantries has heard me half joke about my belief that “the computer was invented to expedite human error.”  Data quality issues usually result from human error at some point in a process.

Thankfully, when it comes to address and other location data, technology advancements have made the cleansing and validation of data much more efficient and effective. Insurance companies can utilize web services to move these processes forward in the business cycle, allowing them to better leverage their location data stores as an enterprise asset.

Futurist Jim Carroll insights such as “customers today are more likely to take their business elsewhere when they have a dissatisfactory experience…the customer today has and expects so much choice” and the “marketplace is changing so fast during this period of hyper innovation” that it appears the business of insurance has even more challenge and opportunity than it did just a few years ago. 

Mr. Carroll talked too about the fact that insurance companies need to understand that business clients are starting to value processes. Rather than looking at individual components or assets, Jim points out that carriers should understand that the nature of what they are going to be asked to protect will be process: not just individual assets but rather that combination of assets, services, and people that result in a service.

Overall, I left the conference reminded that the insurance industry I joined over 30 years ago is a lot more exciting than some people might think.

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The Suquamish use it

The Suquamish use it, Don’t You?

Tribal Canoe Journey

Each summer the native tribes in the Pacific Northwest (USA) paddle their canoes to a village that is hosting a traditional potlatch. It’s a way to carry on traditions that would otherwise be lost to the modern world. We use MapInfo to make the journey safer, from the first planning phase to final day of canoe pulling.

Up and down the northwest coast, canoes were used much as we use automobiles today. They were traditionally carved from a very large red-cedar tree that was felled, split, hollowed then steamed and spread. The traditional knowledge of how to do that was nearly lost when, in 1989, a challenge was raised in the tribal communities that there would be a canoe trip to Seattle. It was
hugely emotional for everyone involved, and began the summer journeys.

Canoes are important to the coastal people of the Pacific Northwest, not only for their functional value, but because it was a key to the culture. These days, it’s a way for young people to reconnect with their traditions, and a reason to ask their elders why certain protocols are done in certain ways in the canoe. It’s a way and a reason to get healthy, to learn the spoken language, and meet other young people from other villages during the potlatches. Canoes have become a way to pass on traditional ways that make sense to young people, so they actually seek out that traditional wisdom and integrate it into their lives.

We at Suquamish have been involved with the canoe journeys since 1989, and we paddled a cedar dugout canoe 600 miles north into Canada in 1993 to the week-long potlatch at Bella Bella, British Columbia. We stopped at native villages along the way, following traditional protocol - it took us a month to get there. Since then, we’ve had at least one canoe on every summer pull, and now have seven tribal and family canoes.

We use MapInfo with digital nautical charts to plan canoe routes and stops, and provide geographic coordination for all the tribes. We have made daily guidemaps with MapInfo that indicate that day’s proposed route with distance, any possible hazards, lunch stops, emergency access points and an aerial photo of the destination so pullers have a sense of where they’re going. We bundle these together for the entire trip, print them on a color laser printer so the ink won’t run, and put them in a large ziplock bag for each canoe.

Several years ago we had a particularly challenging pull out the Strait of Juan de Fuca to the Pacific Ocean, then south along a rough and dangerous shoreline to the potlatch hosted by the Quinault people. All went well until the last day of the two-week pull, when a fogbank rolled over the canoes and created a very dangerous situation. In the sailboat we were using as a support boat, we pulled out the laptop and tried to run our usual PC navigation program. For some reason, it would not initialize. We put four canoes and their canoes under tow, and really needed to know where we (and the rocks) were. So we started MapInfo Professional, connected the GPS and ran the Blue Marble GeoTracker utility. That showed us where we were, right on the nautical chart. This allowed us to navigate safely along a truly perilous shoreline to the relative protection of Point Grenville, where we put the canoes ashore. We have a PowerPoint of that entire trip, which is really what we’re submitting for the award.

Check out more of the Unique and Unusual ways people are using MapInfo technology www.meridianawards.com and if you are even more interested in what people are saying about MapInfo and MapWorld check out www.mapinfo.com/openmic.
 

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