Here’s an unpleasant thought: According the international news agency Agence France Press, Stockton, California, has become “the ground zero” of mortgage foreclosures.
Per an AFP article published in September, 2007, 1 in 27 Stockton homes are in foreclosure. According to the article, which bases its information on data from an organization called RealtyTrac, the worst-hit neighborhood is the Weston Ranch subdivision, where hundreds of homes are in foreclosure already.
Because I am so interested in demography, any time such an important news story gets linked to an individual neighborhood, I can’t help but investigate. Because home foreclosure would seem to be so heavily driven by socio-economic data, I decided to look into the profile of Weston Ranch.
Here’s what I learned:
First off, back in 1990, according to the U.S. Census, there were only a total of 71 housing units in the Weston Ranch area. By 2000, according to the U.S. Census, that number had increased to 2,266. In 2006, according to MapInfo’s own estimates, the total number of housing units had increased to 4,159.
That is a growth rate of over 5,000%. In New York, where population is generally decreasing, that kind of growth sounds unbelievable. I can’t even picture it.
The median, family income for Weston Ranch is about $78,000, according to MapInfo estimates. That is not poor. It is also far from grossly rich. Also, home values, according to the Census, were only about $175,000 in 2000. For California, that strikes me as very modest. This is a neighborhood of normal people.
Taking that information, I used MapInfo demographic data that I have stored within a business intelligence data mart on my local server and did some queries. First I grabbed the universe of all U.S. Census Block Groups for the nation — about 200,000. Then I applied a filter so that I was looking at only Block Groups where the number of housing units changed by over 1,000% from 1990 to 2000. They allowed me to create a subset of about 330 Block Groups.
I applied another filter to check for Block Groups where, according to MapInfo, the projected population change from 2000 to 2011 was expected to be over 120%.
Finally, I looked at home value. I decided to search only for Block Groups where the home value in 2000 was, according to Census statistics, over $150,000, but under $220,000.
This got me a list of 19 Block Groups that I consider similar to Stockton’s ‘ground zero.’
Of the 19, 18 are in the Sunbelt – one in Florida and 17 in the western part of the country. The 19th is near Chicago.
According to data from MapInfo PSYTE Advantage, all of the neighborhoods are suburban, high growth areas, although they are evenly split in terms of density: one-third, high density; one-third, low density, etc. They also fall, for the most part, into 3 particular PSYTE Advantage clusters:
Western Sprawl
Sierra Snuggle
Suburban Mélange
Besides being high-growth, mostly Western suburbs, what do these groups have in common? Married couple households, age 25-49, kids under 18, income between $65,000 and $85,000.
Sounds like the American dream.
Now I wouldn’t hit the panic button just yet if your neighborhood comes up on this list. This is back-of-the-napkin analysis. But for reference, the neighborhoods I came up with are:
77382 Spring, Texas
60543 Oswego, Illinois
33913 Fort Myers, Florida
95206 Stockton, California
85308 Glendale, Arizona
85374 Surprise, Arizona
85382 Peoria, Arizona
85248 Chandler, Arizona
89134 Las Vegas, Nevada
89128 Las Vegas, Nevada
89131 Las Vegas, Nevada
89031 North Las Vegas, Nevada
89012 Henderson, Nevada
89124 Las Vegas, Nevada
89148 Las Vegas, Nevada
By the way, another good article on the subject, one from The Associated Press, can be found here:
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=3697957


